| Table 1. Variable classification used in the analysis of Ebola outbreak patient data. | |
|---|---|
| Variable Category | Description |
| Patient Demographics | Includes physical traits and hospital, which reflects treatment context. |
| Clinical Milestones | Captures key dates and durations across the illness course. |
| Symptom Presentation | Derived from symptoms column using string matching; totals as n_symptoms. |
| Viral Load | Lower CT = higher viral load. |
| Clinical Outcome (Target) | Recovery status of the patient: Recover, Death, or Unknown. |
Patient-Level Predictors of Ebola Outcome
Descriptive Exploration of the 2014–2015 Simulated Outbreak
2025-05-12
How are patient demographics and clinical characteristics distributed?
A–B: Most patients were under 20; age distribution is right-skewed; C: Gender distribution was nearly equal among known cases; D: Many infection sources were unspecified (“other”); E–F: Most weights: 100–130 lb; most heights: 4.5–5.5 ft; G: Typical body temperature: 100–102°F; H: Port Hospital had the highest patient count.
How does demographical changes affect outcome?
Left Recovery and death proportions remain relatively stable from ages 0–49, but the 50–69 group shows a visible increase in recovery and slight decline in death proportion.
Right Port Hospital handled the highest number of patients across all outcomes, especially deaths, suggesting it served as a major treatment center.
Do overweight patients have higher risk of disease?
Weight increases with age as expected, but within each age group, clinical outcomes are not clearly separated by weight.
Are there any patterns in the distribution of the clinical milestones?
Panels A–C show histograms of days between clinical events (A: infection, B: symptom onset, C: hospitalisation) and outcome.
When was the peak time of the epidemic during 2014-2015 outbreak?
Monthly counts of cases for infection, symptom onset, and hospitalisation events. Negative values in A–C reflect likely data entry errors or same-day events.
How did the hospitals adapt to the situation? Were there delays in treatment?
MilitaryandPort Hospitalsshow stable and stratified patterns, indicating organized clinical pathways by outcome.St. Mark’sand “Other” facilities exhibit greater month-to-month variation, suggesting either fewer cases or evolving protocols.- There is no strong evidence of systemic delay over time - rather, median durations remained stable or improved.
Did clinical milestones vary among different age groups in turn affecting outcome?
- Shorter time-to-outcome for deaths across all ages likely reflects severe presentations or delayed hospitalisation.
- Longer recovery durations in older patients suggest sustained treatment efforts.
- Variation in milestone intervals by age implies that age modified the timing of clinical trajectory, thereby influencing the likelihood of recovery or death.
Which was the highest recorded symptom among the patients?
Panels A–F show binary indicator counts for individual symptoms: fever, cough, vomiting, chills, aches, and absence of symptoms (“no symptoms”).
How many symptoms were commonly reported?
Where there any left skewness with the viral load depicting higher disease?
Were there any combination of symptoms prevalent in particular outcome?
Most patients with Fever+Cough or Fever+Cough+Vomit had a known outcome, with Death being the most frequent outcome in both combinations.
Does the combination of reported symptoms and age category influence the clinical outcome?
For
Fever+Cough, younger age groups (<30) consistently show higher recovery proportions, while older age groups have slightly increased death rates.In
Fever+VomitandVomit+Cough, recovery rates drop noticeably in middle-aged and older adults, with a corresponding rise in deaths, especially in the50–69group.